Betting 105: DO YOU EVEN ARB BRO?
Food for thought for arbers and aspiring arbers and to shed a bit of light for those wondering
WHAT THE F*CK is arbing?
That seems like a good place to start… My definition; Arbing is the act of betting both sides of an event in a way that guarantees profit. Sounds pretty good right?
Easy example: One bookie has Raiders to win @2.02, another has Panthers @2.10. Put $1K on both to return either $2020 or $2100 no matter what happens! Or tweak your stake with slightly more on Raiders and return $2070 either way! Again, Sounds pretty good right! (These are made up prices for the example before you get too excited.)
Other examples; It doesn’t have to be roughly 50/50, theory works on any head to head if you can find the right price… If I can find Cows $1.55 and Broncs $3.10. $1k on Cows, $500 on Broncos get back $1550 for my $1500 no matter what!
So arbing is smart, arbing is sneaky, to be successful you certainly need an eagle eye across a tonne of markets across a bunch of bookies because obvious mainstream sporting event price disparities like I have listed come around about as often as I pick up birds. That’s the first issue. These opportunities don’t come around every day. But, there are a few people in this group who do have the ability to find these outlying prices from time to time which is awesome. We had one last night in the fucking Bachelor (Alex was $2 on Sportsbet, Nikki was $2.60 on Will Hill) BUT I am here to tell you …
WHY I DON’T ARB…
I think it’s morally wrong to cheat the bookmaker-hahahahahaha sorry couldn’t keep a straight face. Here’s why…
You need a lot of AVAILABLE CASH:
To take advantage you are going to need big sums of money readily available to stake in order to turn relatively small profits. Not only that, you don’t always find these prices 10 mins before kickoff, which means you may have huge amounts of money tied up for days. That’s money you could be betting and making profit elsewhere.
Assuming you have the cash, the next issue is LIMITS:
$13000 on Alex @ $2. $10000 on Nikki @ $2.60. $23000 to return guaranteed $26000. Why wouldn’t you do that? Because you can’t. It’s easier to find exploitable prices on obscure markets, but those markets generally don’t have high limits. $13 on Alex and $10 on Nikki? Sure, but that’s a bit of effort to return $3.
You might get STRANDED!
Take the Raiders – Panthers if you found them both over $2 odds. $10K on Panthers ACCEPTED. $10K on Raiders – REJECTED. WTF DO I DO NOW!?!?! I was just trying to win an easy couple hundred bucks now I stand to lose 5 figures!!! I THOUGHT THIS WAS MEANT TO BE RISK FREE! Or what if the PRICES CHANGE! Remember, these odds are outlying because there has been a mistake, what if someone hits it just before you, or the bookies correct it. All of a sudden you have a HUGE bet only on one side!
That’s the practical argument, also in theory I CAN THINK OF A BETTER WAY…
You found Raiders @2.02 and Panthers @2.10. Everyone else has Raiders as a slight favourite. So Raiders win probability is probably about 55%. You COULD face all the challenges above and try to bet both sides big OR JUST BET ON A 55% OUTCOME AT GREAT ODDS of $2.02! Why give the bookies money back by betting back on Panthers when it’s not necessarily even a great price? You won’t win every time, but you will win MORE MONEY in the long run just betting the price with a higher expected value. If you’re not sure– compare with other bookmakers… you can also POST IN THIS GROUP, more than likely we have an expert on hand to help!
Pat yourself on the back if you read this far. Happy to hear contrary opinions and success stories from any arbing friends…
DISCUSSION IN FACEBOOK GROUP ‘TryPod Tips Forum’
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