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BETTING 102 – LOOSY’S LAW

ORIGINALLY POSTED ON 28 JUNE 2016 in our Facebook Group ‘TryPod NRL Tips Forum’

BETTING 102 – LOOSY’S LAW Guys welcome to the group! I’m looking forward to bouncing ideas and getting information from people with greater knowledge across different sports. Feel free to invite any mates who may be keen. I’m also happy to share some nuggets like this for those who are interested.

HTFT

That means a team leads at Half Time and Full Time. Sometimes this may be HTNT where the N is for Normal meaning the selection will lose if it goes to extra time.

I placed a bet like this last night on Manly to lead at HT and FT. But when is it value?? That’s the tricky question because the HT result is highly correlated to the FT result. After years of qualitative analysis, I have a simple rule (or LAW if you will) that applies to NBA, NFL, AFL & NRL…

You like a team to win the game… Take the best price you can find for a straight up win and MULTIPLY BY 1.6. 

Now, that number is the better value price for a HTFT bet on that team.

EXAMPLE;

Last night once the lineups were confirmed the best price I could find on Manly was $5.20…

$5.20 x 1.6 = $8.30

If I could find Manly HTFT at $8.30 or higher, that’s a BETTER VALUE bet than SU at $5.20.

Looking at it the other way, any time you see HTFT odds, just divide by 1.6, if the price is higher than what you are seeing as odds for the win you have found a great bet.

WHY? Basically because if a team wins a game I have figure out that they lead at ht more than 60% of the time.

This law is good to know and use. Usually the HTFT odds are NOT 1.6 x higher, so if you want to bet a team to win just take Straight Up win, but what I find is that the times it is better value is when there has been a significant price move and they haven’t adjusted the original HTFT markets.

CONFUSED? That’s why it’s Betting 102, happy to explain further in the TryPod NRL Tips Forum.

You see a market with a price that passes Loosy’s Law, you let me know…

Need the best bookie signup links to find the best prices that are above the law? Get them here – 

http://bit.ly/TRYPODLINKS
If in a restricted state PM Jacob Winn or Alex Pod

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2 Comments

  • Bilbo Baggins on March 19, 2017

    I think your missing a lot of key information here, unless you expect people to blindly follow this 1.6 rule and trust the “years of quantitative analysis”. If a HTFT bet is >1.6 how much greater is the EV than the H2H bet. This would be essential to know whether its worth the increased risk. And what is that risk? How often to teams lead at half time and then lose ect ect.

  • Gordon Watters on March 23, 2017

    Well done I like the concept. Thanks for the work and sharing this.

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